Abstract The molecular weight distribution (MWD) of polymers is a target of the optimization and control of industrial polymerization processes, as it dictates the processability and properties of polymers. A method, named as segment probability method, is developed to calculate the MWD of polycondensates produced by monomers of types A 2 and B 2 in a continuous reactor. It considers a growing chain as being composed of A and B segments in the middle of the chain and two terminal segments at the chain ends. It calculates the propagation probabilities of these different types of segments upon taking into account both the polycondensation and side reaction kinetics as well as the residence time distribution of the continuous reactor. The method is validated by poly(butylene terephthalate) (PBT) obtained from an industrial polymerization process composed of a continuous esterification reactor. The MWDs of the PBT calculated by this method are in agreement with those measured by size exclusion chromatography with mean square errors less than 10%.